Random thoughts from a wordsmith, budding lexicographer, and 'snapper up of unconsidered trifles'.
Copies of my published work, in various stages of completion, are here.
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This kicked up a stink in the usual places (notably social media). China rushed to ban Japanese seafood (carefully avoiding the admission that it has several reactors discharging 3 or 4 times as much as the planned 30-year Fukushima discharge ...
<parenthesis> (about 22 tera-becquerels per year over 30 years, as opposed to the 60-80 tera-becquerels discharged by China's plants. Sellafield discharges 150 tera-becquerels per year into the Irish Sea. A huge plant in France discharges many times that into the North Sea)
<source> These figures...
<background> A tera- becquerel is 1,0[oops]000,000,000,000 becquerels, and More or Less asked its usual question: 'Is this a big number?' </background>~
... come from the BBC World Service's More or Less, which concludes with the interesting view that anxiety about nuclear accidents does more damage (in terms of real harms to public health) than the accidents themselves. It's only 9 minutes long and is well worth a listen.
</source>
That BBC report says
Traditional female divers in South Korea, known as "haenyeo", tell the BBC they are anxious.
"Now I feel it's unsafe to dive in," says Kim Eun-ah, who has been doing the job off Jeju Island for six years. "We consider ourselves as part of the sea because we immerse ourselves in the water with our own bodies," she explains.
Strangely, those divers don't seem to be concerned about the much higher radioactive discharges made by Chinese power stations – another example of the point made at the end of that programme: people are useless at comparing risks. (What the programme doesn't add is that politicians know this, and exploit the weakness as far as they can.)
</parenthesis>
...).
Is that the time?
b
Update: 2023.08.31.14:40 – Added PS
PS
But the fact that almost all scientific analysis accepts this discharge as 'safe' ...
<parenthesis> (one observer pointed out that the risk incurred by a Japanese fish diet was vastly outweighed by the radiation dose experienced in an inter-continental flight, because of exposure to cosmic rfays and other scary stuff in the ionosphere) </parenthesis>
... doesn't mean that everyone gives it their blessing. The discharge may be safe, but it is not an example of best practice. Look at the dates in articles such as this; the earliest is ten years old, and most were published in the last five years. The safety standards are much older than that. International safety standards are hammered out over decades:
The Convention on Nuclear Safety was adopted on 17 June 1994 by a Diplomatic Conference convened by the International Atomic Energy Agency at its Headquarters from 14 to 17 June 1994 [HD:my emphasis].
In fairness....
<tangent subj-"self-editing">
The cliché that came to mind was 'to be fair'; but I didn't want to sound like something out of a football interview. </tangent>
..ithasbeen updated 4 times since then. But the latest update pre-dates the original Fukushima Daiishi accident by more than 8 years. We're making a mess of the planet, and the prospects won't get any better if polluters insist on toeing lines drawn decades ago.
<autobiographical-note> (and which, much to MrsK's chagrin...
<tangent>
I wonder what happened to that word to make it lose favour at the turn of the eighteenth century. Perhaps it's anti-French prejudice – a bit rich when you think about it:
From the Collins Online Dictionary
</tangent>
...doesn't go immediately into the recycling...,
<explanatory-note> I use the Letters section of the latest edition as an indication of what's worth reading in the previous one. </explanatory-note>
...) </autobiographical-note>
... has a short feature with the title...
<ducking-and-covering> (and no, I still refuse to use the Newspeak "titled"; for more details than is good for your sanity, see the <rant /> here. In short, for socio-historical reasons, British English needs two words to do duty for three meanings, whereas American English has a more comfortable two x two; so the Chicago Manual of Style can pontificate as much as it wants. I know what I know. </ducking-and-covering>
...This Idea Must Die: <object-of-iconoclastic-target-practice>. Last month the idea in the crosshairs was 'Learning styles determine outcomes'.
Visual, auditory, reading/writing and kinesthetic. The concept of learning styles has been with us since the late 1990s and early 2000s...
<autobiographical-note> Aha – that's why it was so popular when I was studying for my PGCE in 2004-5. </autobiographical-note>
...,when it was accepted that to optimise learning, teachers must identify the particular learning style of a child and align the way they presented information accordingly.
Only, it’s a myth [sic...
<bugbear> I do wish people would stop using this cliché ('myth' to mean widely-held mistaken belief or misapprehension. Still, we know what the writer means, so perhaps I should get a life; I've been banging on about this since the mid '70s, and this boat has not only sailed; it's way beyond the horizon. </bugbear>
. ..]. There is no evidence whatsoever to back it up. The idea has been extensively and empirically tested to see if children learn the most in conditions that align with their preferred ‘learning style’. They don’t. Yet a systematic review published in the journal Frontiers in 2020 found that teachers still believe they do. In fact, the review found that 89 per cent of teachers self-reported [sic...
<bugbear> Oh dear. Father forgive them, for they know not what they do. </bugbear>
...] a belief in matching instruction to learning styles
'bogus interventions and frameworks': from CAM article
To be clear: the writer is not saying 'Teachers should spout stuff regardless of the individual abilities/interests/needs of their students. That would be ridiculous. Of course it's part of the teacher's job to be aware of these things, and to tailor their delivery accordingly. He is simply saying aardVARK hunters [Visual, Auditory, Reading/writing and Kinesthetic] are wasting their time and energy.
The letter I sent to CAM may not see the light of day, but here it is:
Professor Astle is right: 'bogus interventions and frameworks' are rife in the world of education. In fact, I think Michael Gove's notorious dismissal of experts was directed at these self-styled experts peddling non-evidence-based 'solutions'. When, as a very mature student, I took my PGCE more than 30 years after my time at Cambridge, one of my eyebrows was almost permanently raised.
He identifies teacher-training as a suitable locus for the introduction of sanity. But earlier in his article he cites the fly in the ointment: that 89% of self-confessed obscurantists already ensconced in the profession. During traditional teaching practice, students will perforce be exposed to this sort of indoctrination. If PGCE students are to survive their training (most of my colleagues on that course just drank the Kool-Aid)...
<inline-ps>
(and went on to increase that 89% figure)
</inline-ps>
...Professor Astle and his colleagues need to provide persuasive and unarguable evidence that commonly-held beliefs are wrong.
That last sentence presents a wan hope. One or two academic papers aren't going to turn the tide of belief in this 21st-century snake oil. The PGCE is a trial by paperwork. Whatever that paperwork says, the influence of the teaching practice staff-room, featuring those 'bogus interventions and frameworks', will outweigh it. Paul Simon was right:
When I think back at all the crap I learned in highschool
...and the trouble is, it's not flat The trade winds make it pile up on one side of the planet, and when the trade winds vary - as they do, largely unpredictàbly - the water slooshes back and forth, with earth-shattering consequences.
This is el Niño, officially known as 'El Niño Southern Oscillation' (ENSO).
<bon-ish_mot critique="It doesn't really work, does it?">
With its sister la Niña (the same, but with polarities reversed).
should the terrible twins be known together as the SOENSO? <bon-ish_mot>
The phenomenon was first observed by Peruvian fisherman in the 1600s, who noticed that warm waters seemed to peak near the Americas in December.
They nicknamed the event "El Niño de Navidad", Christ Child in Spanish.
And Advent has started early this year: the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change announced the beginning of the latest El Niño in June 2023:
A seven month Advent. One tries ones best to be a glass-half-full sort of person, but - as some wag on the radio last week put it - it's half full of economy cava rather than champagne.
If that explanation is not enough, I recommend the edition of The Climate Question, devoted specifically to El Niño, which starts off from some mysterious structures criss-crossing the Pampa de Mocan. These were pre-hispanic earthworks, investigated by the Proyecto Arqueo-Ambiental de la Pampa de Mocan
The north coast of Peru is a relatively flat area, with rivers running across it from the Andes mountains down to the Pacific Ocean, making it susceptible to extreme flooding during El Niño. However, using a flexible irrigation system, ancient farmers in the Pampa de Mocan were able to prepare for these sudden floodwaters and use them for agricultural production. Canals were constructed in the area from the Early Horizon Period (1100 BC) up to the Late Intermediate Period (c.AD 1460). These canals had multiple functions, carrying river water at some points in their use-lives and diverting floodwater at others, followed by a third life as agricultural fields once they were no longer used to channel water.
Discussions about the management of natural disasters are especially relevant in the present day, with most modern strategies focused on predicting and detecting events and mitigating their effects. The research from the Pampa de Mocan reveals that pre-Hispanic farmers in this region had a different approach, using opportunistic agricultural techniques to turn El Niño from a catastrophe into an advantage, and allowing them to utilise the Pampa de Mocan as both a productive agricultural area and a risk-management strategy.
As these irrigation ditches were pre-hispanic, how did they know it was called El Niño? Some kind of miracle, I reckon.
</anachronism_alert>
The Mochica civilisation, which built and/or maintained these irrigation ditches during the first millennium CE (I say 'and/or' because the archeologists of PAAPM haven't ruled out the possibility that they were dug in pre-Moche times) were eventually wiped out by a 'Super El Niño'. But, as that El Niñoprogramme observes, they did a lot better with a few hand-tools (not sure whether they had technology as advanced as a wheelbarrow) than current Peruvian authorities.
And for some more glass-half-full stuff have a listen to the latest edition of The Climate Question, featuring an extended interview with the new chairman of the IPCC...
<newspeak_alert>
They're so right-on on that programme that they call him 'the new chair'. I suppose someone who speaks for the agency would be a spoke. I know there are issues with the male-bias of the language, but this sort of '-man' is just an undefined person (German man) as opposed to a man (German Mann). And in any case Professor Jim Skea is one of us poor chromosomatically challenged caitiffs. </newspeak_alert>
..., who you will be relieved to hear, has his fingers crossed as to whether governments are going to meet their net-zero goals.
That's all for now.
b
Update 2023.12.29.12:00 – Added PS
PS A few months after I published this, an article in The Conversation, added to the picture, with particular reference to fresh water:
It is a well-known fact that water is the key to life on Earth. But it is less well known that only about 1% of all water on the planet is fresh water available to humans, plants or land-based animals.
The rest is in the oceans, or locked up in polar ice sheets and rocks. In a climate changing world, the global distribution of that 1% takes on a whole new significance.
It went on to give specific information about the effects of El Niño in Australia (and in the the southern hemisphere generally (in unquoted bits of the article):
...Drying will change vegetation patterns and further increase temperatures, which could be above 35°C for large parts of the year by 2100 if emission rates continue to be high. This would have severe effects on the health of humans and habitats.
Similarly, drying in central Australia has knock-on effects on weather and climate for coastal areas where most of Australia’s major cities and population are situated. Drying trends are also being experienced in the south-west and south-east of the country leading to habitat stresses and change, wildfires, depleted rivers and impacts on human health, especially in urban areas.
As with many aspects of climate, the exact nature and scale of changes and impacts are hard to predict or model at local or regional scales. But this new paper points to clear shifts in patterns and complex climate processes in the southern hemisphere which will reduce water availability during El Niño events.
Drying will generate additional stresses on habitats and species in key regions. It will also impact human populations with varying capacities to adapt and, ultimately, our global food systems. Although the southern hemisphere is mostly water, what happens there really matters for the whole planet.
<apologies-for-absence> Sorry. In a recent frenzy of tidying I accidentally deleted everything but this update (the 08.06 one). I imagine it's squirreled away in a trash bin somewhere, but until I find it ... </apologies-for-absence>
<STOP_PRESS update="2023.08.07.10:15">
No, it's gone without trace. Here are the highlights: I've better things to do than try to reproduce the deathless prose.
I noticed some time after the fact that Elon's fearless scythe had cut off an account I had on the app formerly known as Twitter:
This was accompanied by a screed that explained steps I could take to appeal/reverse/otherwise fix the ruling. As my last tweet was dated back in March (I haven't been inclined to spend much time on Twitter since Mr Musk started his race to the bottom), I didn't think it worth my while to go through all this,. but here's the gist:
I suspect, though, that my unwitting transgression was my use of 'cotton-pickin'' in a tweet about Nadine Dorries. Look hard enough and there's racism at the root of this term. But I used it in a paraphrase of something Deputy Dawg used to say before jumping to a wrong-headed or obvious conclusion; his southern drawl should have warned me that I might be treading on some toes..
</STOP_PRESS>
Update: 2023.08.06.07:10 – Added PS
PS:
<background>
As Li'l Miss Barnacle's Long Goodbye ticked into its seventh eighth week, this tweet appeared:
Having said she was standing down "with immediate effect" seven eight weeks ago, she cannot now stand down until Parliament is back in session (after the party conferences, or – perhaps more significantly – after the publication date of her book). So her constituents ("marvellous", according to her June tweet) will remain unrepresented until then. I imagine the local booksellers will have got their pre-orders in.
</background>
PPS And the last bit of the repair:
<REPAIR Update="2023.08.08.12:55">
Victoria Boliviana in the wild
As a passing thought I mentioned a TV programme I had seen about the discovery and naming of a new giant waterlily:
For a (stupid) moment I thought "Aha, so that's what Victoria means, but as any fule kno Victoria was the goddess of victory, and there's nothing particularly victorious about a waterlily. No, the reason for the name was just that a Victorian collector wanted to curry favour with his monarch, just as William Herschel had done with her grandfather;
<background>
Herschel, a devoted subject of England’s King George III, suggested that the new planet be named Georgium Sidus, or George’s Star. This went against the naming convention that had developed in the Western world, in which planets were named after Roman deities. It was also less appealing to astronomers outside Great Britain for obvious reasons. Several alternative names were tossed around, including Herschel (after its discoverer) and Neptune. German astronomer Johann Elert Bode, whose observations helped establish the new object as a planet, suggested another possibility: Uranus.
Bode’s suggestion became the most popular, and chemist Martin Klaproth even named his newly discovered element “uranium” in a show of support. Although astronomers in England continued to use Georgium Sidus until around 1850, they eventually joined the rest of the world in calling the seventh planet Uranus. Source
</background>
Update: 2023.08.31.09:05 – Added PPPS
When I wrote about the timing of Li'l Miss Barnacle's exit my suggestion of the coincidence of her publication date was not entirely serious. But in a recent The Rest Is Politics Rory Stewart is convinced that the timing is no accident. He says something measured (or do I mean mealy-mouthed?) like 'she should be very careful'. But he is obviously quite aghast at her atrocious behaviour.
Perhaps, though, he is being diplomatic rather than mealy-mouthed. I wonder if there's a risk of prosecution for Contempt:
Contempt of privilege is a term used to describe any act - or failure to act - that may prevent or hinder the work of either House of Parliament. A more specific offence against parliamentary privilege is known as a breach of privilege.
Maybe not. Litigation in politics is a rather hackneyed weapon in the culture wars...
<parenthesis> (and has given the word weaponize a new lease of metaphorical life): this is from Ngrams:
</parenthesis>
... but involving electoral realities in a tawdry publicity stunt is hardly a mark of good faith. She obviously has contempt both for Parliament (in particular for the PM – who only got to read her letter of resignation via the Daily Mail...
<tangent> (For some reason I'm reminded of Alan [not then Lord] Sugar and Jürgen Klinsman's shirt: 'I wouldn't wash my car with it'. No idea where that memory came from.) </tangent>
... and for her constituents. Come to think of it, her contempt extends to the public in general. But maybe actual contempt doesn't come into the legal defition.
